Kai Parker
When the Water Rises: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Chile’s Coastlines
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Project Proposal:
This Fulbright project proposes to investigate a critical national hazard through collaboration with one of Chile’s foremost coastal engineers, Patricio Catalán at the Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María (USM). The research will combine Dr.Catalán’s deep background in Chilean tsunami modeling with my own experience in probabilistic coastal hazard assessment. The resulting work will represent a significant step forward, both for the academic tsunami hazard community as well as for the safety of coastal Chilean citizens.
The research objectives for this project will be two-fold: First, we will develop probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for the region around Valparaíso. The second objective will be an assessment/report on the feasibility of using this technique for extending these flood maps to larger regions throughout Chile. Beyond this, emulation has further promise of integration into Chile’s earthquake and tsunami real-time warning system due to its rapid simulation time and ability to handle/quantify uncertainty in initial characterization of the earthquake source. In particular, the method pairs well with current USM research towards developing stochastic methods for producing earthquake slip distributions. While producing a functional warning system is beyond the scope of this project, this research will serve as a pilot study into the technique’s feasibility for future research and development. Dr. Catalán holds a leading role in the implementation of Chile’s tsunami warning system, making the potential impact of this research even broader.
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Proposal:
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